Mass Production of ASSB Has Entered the Countdown Stage

In early November 2024, there was a surge in news related to all-solid-state batteries. On November 5th, Huawei unveiled its latest sulfide solid-state battery patent titled "Doped Sulfide Materials and Their Preparation Methods, Lithium-ion Batteries". On the same day, Sunwoda announced that it expects to complete the laboratory sample production of all-solid-state batteries with an energy density exceeding 700Wh/kg by 2027. On November 6th, CATL revealed that its sulfide all-solid-state battery has entered the 20Ah sample trial production stage. On November 7th, Talent New Energy declared that its separator-free all-solid-state batteries will begin mass production in 2027. On November 8th, GAC Group stated that it has preliminarily established the full-process manufacturing technology for all-solid-state batteries and expects to achieve vehicle integration by 2026.

With the global energy transition and the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for high-performance and high-safety batteries is increasing. All-solid-state batteries, known for their excellent safety, high energy density, and long cycle life, have become a research hotspot in the fields of energy storage and power batteries. This battery technology is not only crucial for the future of the electric vehicle industry, but also a key driver for the energy revolution and sustainable development. Chinese companies are actively breaking through technological bottlenecks, and the application of all-solid-state batteries in real-world scenarios is no longer far away.

Unlocking the100 Billion Potential: The Rise of All-Solid-State Batteries by 2030

All-solid-state batteries are batteries in which all components are in a solid state. By replacing liquid electrolytes with solid electrolytes, this type of battery not only achieves more stable chemical properties but also widens the electrochemical window. This allows the battery to be compatible with high-voltage cathode materials and high-capacity anode materials, thereby significantly increasing the energy density of the battery.

Compared with liquid and semi-solid-state batteries, all-solid-state batteries can operate stably over a broader temperature range, demonstrating higher thermal stability and chemical safety. In addition, all-solid-state batteries support higher energy density. This means that for the same amount of electrical energy output, the battery can be more compact in size, which helps to save space and improve the energy efficiency ratio of the device.

From the perspective of the chemical system of solid electrolytes, all-solid-state batteries mainly include three types: polymer, oxide, and sulfide. Polymer electrolytes have good compatibility with the anode interface and low shear modulus, but their ionic conductivity is relatively low and their cycle life is short. Currently, they are more often used in combination with other materials to enhance conductivity and cycle life. Oxide electrolytes feature a wide electrochemical window and high thermal and air stability, but they lack flexibility. Sulfide electrolytes have high conductivity and high thermal stability, but they are sensitive to moisture.

From a cost perspective, the sulfide route has relatively higher material costs due to the use of more expensive raw materials, but it also offers higher conductivity and energy density. The polymer composite electrolyte route involves complex synthesis steps and sophisticated processing techniques, resulting in higher manufacturing costs compared to other routes. The oxide route has moderate material and manufacturing costs, offering a better overall balance. EO Intelligence believes that with technological advancements and the realization of scaled production, the overall cost of all-solid-state batteries will gradually decrease.

The development of all-solid-state batteries is driven by policy, investment and financing, demand, and technology. In terms of policy, China has a clear stance on promoting the development of solid-state batteries, providing strong guidance for the future direction of the battery industry. Regarding investment and financing, the amount of industry funding is continuously increasing, with financing events concentrating on leading manufacturers, guiding rational industry development. On the demand side, users' concerns about battery range, charging, and safety are driving emerging battery technologies to complement traditional ones. In terms of technology, there has been rapid growth in relevant academic achievements and patent technologies, with China leading breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology.

The period from 2026 to 2028 is likely to be a crucial phase for the mass production of all-solid-state batteries across different technical routes. Among them, the sulfide route is expected to achieve mass production as early as 2026, the oxide route is anticipated to begin mass production in 2027, and the polymer route is projected to realize mass production by 2028. After 2029, as the prices of all-solid-state batteries decline, the solid-state battery industry will enter a structural adjustment phase of maturity. It is expected that by 2030, the industry scale of all-solid-state batteries will exceed 100 billion yuan.

Lithium Battery Giants are Key to Advancing All-Solid-State Battery Technology

The solid-state battery industry chain covers all aspects from the mining of raw materials to the final application. Continuous technological progress and accelerated industrialization indicate that all-solid-state batteries will play a significant role in multiple fields in the future. Battery manufacturers are the core force in leading R&D and promoting industrial development, with lithium battery giants focusing on key links such as battery design, assembly, and testing. Chinese power battery manufacturers are actively deploying the R&D of all-solid-state batteries. Some manufacturers have already achieved the production and testing of all-solid-state battery A samples and are focusing on further exploration of production processes and battery materials.

The materials and processes of all-solid-state batteries are still in the stage of exploration and research, and there is still a certain distance to large-scale mass production. In terms of technology, all-solid-state batteries mainly need to solve the problems of materials and interface contact. In terms of production and manufacturing, the main issues to be addressed are the immaturity of processes and the imperfection of manufacturing equipment.

Among them, sulfide all-solid-state batteries need to overcome issues such as poor air stability, reactive interfaces, and high manufacturing costs. Manufacturers represented by Enpower Greentech are addressing these problems through material research and process improvement. The challenges for the oxide technology route lie in the brittleness of materials, poor contact, and special process requirements. Manufacturers such as Talent New Energy are overcoming these difficulties through technological breakthroughs. The polymer route, on the other hand, needs to address the challenges of low ionic conductivity of the electrolyte, poor chemical and thermal stability, and low mechanical strength. Manufacturers like Sunwoda are tackling these challenges through material innovation and process improvement.

The Anticipated Application Scenarios Follow an Expansion Path from Specialized to General and from Singular to Diverse

EO Intelligence has summarized 12 potential application scenarios for all-solid-state batteries and conducted expert scoring from the dimensions of "cost sensitivity" and "energy density requirements". Based on this, a coordinate system was established to pinpoint the locations of different scenarios within it. A higher cost sensitivity indicates a greater emphasis on the cost-effectiveness of the battery, while a higher requirement for energy density signifies a stronger focus on the battery's performance and range.

By constructing a coordinate system with "cost sensitivity" and "energy density requirements" as axes, EO Intelligence has classified different application scenarios. Based on this, according to the characteristics of these scenarios, their positions in the coordinate system, and the distances between them, we can cluster them into six major application fields: emerging technologies, scientific research, manned aircraft, electric vehicles, traditional consumer electronics, industry, and energy storage.

By analyzing the market demand characteristics of different application fields, EO Intelligence has observed the following features. First, the emerging technology and scientific research fields pursue high performance and high safety of batteries and are insensitive to cost. Second, manned aircraft, electric vehicles, and traditional consumer electronics scenarios focus on both energy density and cost-effectiveness of batteries. Finally, the energy storage and industrial fields are highly sensitive to battery costs and emphasize high safety, long life, and low cost.

EO Intelligence believes that the application scenarios of all-solid-state batteries follow an expansion path from specialized to general and from singular to diverse. Initially, all-solid-state batteries will be applied in scientific research and emerging technology fields, which have special demands for battery safety and environmental adaptability. With the scaled production of all-solid-state batteries, their costs are expected to decrease while performance improves, allowing their applications to gradually expand into traditional consumer electronics, manned aircraft, and electric vehicles. These markets, which focus on cost-effectiveness, also have high requirements for battery performance. As the technology of all-solid-state batteries matures, their costs are expected to drop significantly, enabling them to enter the industrial and energy storage fields, which are highly cost-sensitive and demand high safety.

Emerging Technology Integration, Application Expansion, and Intensified International Competition Are the Trends

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has already played a significant role in several key aspects of the all-solid-state battery field, including material exploration, battery design, manufacturing processes, and battery management systems (BMS). It not only enhances the efficiency of battery design and manufacturing but also significantly improves the performance and safety of batteries. EO Intelligence believes that emerging technologies, represented by AI, will be closely integrated with the all-solid-state battery industry chain, comprehensively elevating the intelligence level of the entire industry chain.

The development of all-solid-state batteries cannot be separated from in-depth cooperation with typical application scenarios. It is anticipated that the usage scenarios of all-solid-state batteries will expand from single scenarios to multiple scenarios in the future. A new cooperative mechanism that is mutually beneficial and win-win will be formed around all-solid-state batteries. While expanding the value of typical scenarios, it will also achieve the healthy development of the all-solid-state battery industry. The expansion of the application scope of all-solid-state batteries is a future development trend. EO Intelligence believes that the value of typical enterprises in the all-solid-state battery industry chain will increase, driving a reshuffle in the upstream and downstream of the battery industry.

All-solid-state battery technology will expand the energy density and operational range of batteries. This indicates that batteries will be able to meet the energy supply needs of more usage scenarios, and the application scope of batteries is expected to expand. EO Intelligence believes that, with the maturation and application expansion of all-solid-state battery technology, batteries will gradually encroach on the application scenarios of traditional energy sources, accelerating the restructuring of the energy industry.

Finally, EO Intelligence believes that the competition in all-solid-state batteries will center around technologically advanced countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea, with the focus on leading technology companies in these nations. Before 2025, competition will primarily focus on process innovation and the development of new materials. As mass production is realized between 2026 and 2028, the competition among these leading countries will shift to market cultivation and the expansion of battery application scenarios. Looking ahead to 2029 and beyond, all-solid-state batteries are expected to rapidly gain global popularity. The competition among China, Japan, South Korea, and other technologically advanced countries will then focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Leading companies may begin to explore new technologies and new tracks, driving the next round of innovation in battery technology.

Conclusion

All-solid-state batteries, with their high energy density and safety, have become a new focus in battery technology, and it is projected that by 2030, the industry scale in China will exceed 100 billion yuan. Currently, all-solid-state batteries face challenges in materials, interface contact, and manufacturing. Battery manufacturers play a central role in driving their development. There are three main technical routes for all-solid-state batteries: the sulfide route needs to address stability and cost issues; the oxide route must overcome material brittleness; and the polymer route needs to improve conductivity and stability. Relevant battery manufacturers are actively tackling these technical challenges to advance all-solid-state battery technology from theory to application.

With the maturation of technology and scaled production, all-solid-state batteries will expand from low-cost-sensitive fields such as scientific research and emerging technologies to traditional consumer electronics, manned aircraft, and electric vehicles, and eventually enter high-cost-sensitive fields like industry and energy storage. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence will optimize the all-solid-state battery industry chain. The application scenarios of all-solid-state batteries will shift from single to diverse scenarios, driving a reshuffle in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. The expansion of all-solid-state battery applications will accelerate the restructuring of the energy industry. Global market competition will focus on the contest for dominance among technologically advanced countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea.

EO Intelligence is bullish on the future development of China's all-solid-state battery industry and anticipates that mass production of these batteries will become a reality between 2026 and 2028. We focus on monitoring the energy sector, delivering insightful and in-depth research findings after thorough investigation and analysis for industry reference and inspiration. Meanwhile, we look forward to engaging in dialogue and collaboration with our readers, working together to drive the sustainable and healthy development of the energy industry.

For more details on the report, please refer to " The Year of Mass Production for All-Solid-State Batteries is Approaching—A Study on China's All-Solid-State Battery Industry in 2024". If you have any questions, feel free to contact the report author, Shanmei Jiang, at jiangshanmei@iyiou.com. Report link: https://www.iyiou.com/research/202411111394